How accurate are the satellite positions on this site?

Typically within a few kilometres for fresh data — plenty for finding a satellite in the sky — but accuracy falls as the orbital data gets older.

The honest answer has three parts: how good the orbital data is, how old it is, and what you want to use it for.

The model this site uses, SGP4, is described by its maintainers as generally accurate at the kilometre level. That figure is for the model working on good, recent data. The errors are not spread evenly in all directions; they are largest along the orbit, so the satellite tends to be a little early or late on its track rather than off to one side.

What makes accuracy worse

  • Old data. The further the time is from the TLE's epoch, the more the estimate drifts. Low satellites drift fastest, because air drag is hard to predict and SGP4 models it only roughly.
  • Manoeuvres. When a satellite fires its engines, its orbit changes at once. Until a new TLE is published, every tracker in the world will show it in the wrong place.
  • Wrong model. A TLE fed into a different model gives worse results; this site uses the matching SGP4/SDP4 code from satellite.js.
  • Your own location. For pass predictions, the site uses your exact coordinates only if you allow it. Otherwise it uses your chosen city's centre — fine for direction and time, but a pass that skims the horizon in one suburb may be just below it in another.

Checking it yourself

Each satellite page has an Orbital Data Source row and an Orbital Data Fetched row. If the source says the data is cached or sample data, treat the position as rougher.

The simplest real-world test is a bright ISS pass. If the site says the ISS will appear in the south-west at 7:12 pm and climb to 60°, you should see it there within a minute or so of that time. If the station has just raised its orbit, the first passes after the burn may be off until new data arrives.

See it live

Check the Orbital Data Source and Orbital Data Fetched rows to see how recent the TLE behind the estimated position is. Open Cartosat-3

Key facts

  • SGP4 accuracy is generally at the kilometre level (Vallado et al., 2006).
  • Pass start and end times on this site are refined to about one second, then shown to the minute.
  • This site refreshes its stored TLEs in the browser after six hours at most.
  • Without location permission, passes are computed for the selected city's coordinates.

Go deeper

Two kinds of numbers on this site have different accuracy needs.

Positions on the globe. These need only to be right to a few kilometres; at globe scale that is far smaller than a pixel.

Pass times and directions. Here the useful measure is angle and time. A satellite at range ρ with along-track error Δs appears displaced by about Δs/ρ radians and runs Δs/v seconds early or late. For the ISS (v ≈ 7.66 km/s) seen at a range of 800 km, Δs = 3 km gives 3/800 rad ≈ 0.21° in the sky and 3/7.66 ≈ 0.4 s in time — both invisible to the eye.

The pass search itself adds almost no error. The code steps through the next 24 hours every 30 seconds, and when a pass starts or ends between two steps it bisects that interval until the boundary is known to within one second. The comment in the source says it plainly: a pass edge is not sharper than the model.

The larger risk is age. SGP4's secular drag terms grow with time since epoch, and errors in the fitted BSTAR grow with them. If a TLE is a week old, a low satellite can be noticeably early or late. That is why this site refetches data rather than relying on the seed TLEs baked into its code, and labels each data source on the satellite page.

Check yourself

Why are satellite position errors usually largest along the direction of motion?

Most uncertainty comes from drag, which changes how fast the satellite moves around its orbit; that makes it early or late on its track rather than shifting its path sideways.

A satellite fires its engines to raise its orbit. What happens to tracker predictions made from the TLE published before the burn?

They become wrong, because the old TLE describes the old orbit. Predictions improve once a new TLE is published after the burn.

Sources

  1. Revisiting Spacetrack Report #3 (AIAA 2006-6753; Vallado, Crawford, Hujsak & Kelso) — CelesTrak
  2. Spacetrack Report No. 3: Models for Propagation of NORAD Element Sets (Hoots & Roehrich, 1980) — CelesTrak
  3. Frequently Asked Questions: Two-Line Element Set Format — CelesTrak (T.S. Kelso)